3 Facts to Take to the Pub – March 2024

After a brief hiatus we are back here at Zone 14! And with what may, potentially, become a series of articles here on the blog. The hope is for this series to give readers what they want most out of a data/behavioural science and football blog – trivia to spout when watching a match. Yes, yes, I know, we’re all here for our intrinsic love of the game and it is the wedding of data and football that should be celebrated in and of itself and the value of the insights is multifaceted and so on. But as anyone who shares my passion for these two topics has inevitably learned, deep discussions of expected threat and field tilt or an explanation of why players should be judged according to the DAVIES system are tough to communicate unless the person across from you is just as enthusiastic. Which, understandably, most football fans are not.

One of the goals of this blog is to bridge that gap and add some additional answers to the question of “why should we care about statistics in football?” For most fans of football, simply arguing that “statistics can provide teams with a competitive edge” is insufficient. That may be the case, but that’s a business operations answer. That doesn’t directly impact the fan experience. What statistics can do, however, is provide us with facts and charts that make for interesting chat. Or make you see what’s going on in a match through a different lens. So here’s my attempt, with a monthly blog that provides three facts, along with charts, that stand alone, are relevant to the discussions and teams of the day, and that for me as a football fan are just a bit interesting to know. Let’s jump in.

Luton’s Amari’I Bell is the cleanest tackler in the Premier League.

Unless you are a diehard Premier League supporter, or a Luton fan, Amari’I Bell will not be a name that rings a lot of bells. In fact, as has been noted on many occasions, there are still not that many Luton players that ring a lot of bells. That is, of course, with no disrespect to Luton or their players; their performances this season have been very strong at times, and much above where many people expected them to be at this point in the season.

Now, the key here is not just that Bell tackles a lot of players. It’s that so far this season he has attempted 50 tackles in the league and has yet to be booked. That is the highest number of tackles by anyone so far this season without receiving a booking, and by a not insignificant margin. Bell goes in for plenty of tackles – he has tackled more players than Matty Cash and Dan Burn this season, both of whom have logged more minutes than him – but never tempts the referee to reach for his card. For context Fulham’s Joao Palhinha, the League’s leader in tackles with 110 so far, has accrued 12 yellow cards on 39 fouls for his troubles.

Now does this make Amari’I Bell an elite defender, a lucky boy, or a smooth talker with Premier League officials? That, we don’t know.

Liverpool’s centre backs are the best in the league in the air

We all know about the resurgence this season of Virgil van Dijk. After some time of watching the Dutch captain look vulnerable following his return from an ACL tear, he seems to have found his form once again to help Liverpool keep up their title challenge. Unsurprisingly, he has the highest aerial duel percentage in the league, at approximately 85%. The truly interesting fact, however, comes when we look at the top 15 players in the league in that category.

That’s right, four Liverpool centre backs – van Dijk, Gomez, Konate, and Matip – are in the top 15 for aerial duel percentage in the league. Their fifth centre back, Jarrell Quansah, ranks 19th. This is obviously a strategy that Klopp and the team at Liverpool look for. They are next to impossible to beat in the air. This is unique to Liverpool in the title challengers this season. City’s highest after Rodri is Kyle Walker in 41st. Arsenal’s highest? Ben White in 40th with a 64.1% aerial duel win percentage.

From a tactical perspective, this strategy makes sense. Klopp’s Liverpool love to play with a high line to aid their gegenpressing. A lot of the time, the best option for opposing defenders is a clearance up to a player higher up the pitch. With Liverpool’s aerial dominance, however, this amounts to a turnover approximately ¾ of the time regardless of who is playing at centre half. Combined with the relentless press of their forward players, this dominance helps to ensure that when Liverpool play, it will almost always be in the opposition half.

Wataru Endo might just be Liverpool’s most important defensive player

I do apologise to any Everton fans reading this one, as two of the three pub facts this month are focused on the Red side of Merseyside. But after his performance in midfield against Manchester City earlier this month, Wataru Endo deserves his roses.

Signed as a relatively unknown 30-year-old from Stuttgart last summer, Endo appeared to be a panic buy after Liverpool failed in their bids to sign Declan Rice, Moises Caicedo, and Romeo Lavia last summer. He just might have been the best signing of the four.

It can be difficult to quantify the influence a defensive midfielder has on the game. One of the statistics that has been used a lot recently has been quantifying their individual importance by looking at team success. Many have mentioned Rodri’s 61 game unbeaten streak for Manchester City, so what of Endo?

Firstly, he hasn’t played 61 matches yet for Liverpool so that would be a bit difficult to replicate. But if we control for the number of games by looking at points per game while playing, Endo is second in the Premier League to Rodri alone. How does he do it? He stops attacks. Endo is one of the league’s leaders in xGA conceded with the player on the pitch so far this season. When mapping both stats, Endo’s contribution while only playing 43.4% of Liverpool’s minutes this season is exceptional. He just might be one of the most important defensive cogs in the league, and deserves to be considered among the elite players surrounding him.

We’ll see you next month for a few more stats. Happy sharing!